Polymarket Gives Clarity Act 75% Odds — Up 10% Overnight

The prediction market just delivered a verdict on crypto regulation. Polymarket traders are now pricing the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act at 75% odds of becoming law in 2026. It’s a 10-point jump overnight and a dramatic recovery from the 45% reading just two weeks ago. That swing reflects something real happening in Washington this week. Thursday’s Senate Banking Committee markup vote on H.R.3633 will be the first-ever committee vote on a full U.S. crypto market structure bill. Clarity Act news today is moving faster than at any point in the bill’s history.

What Changed in Two Weeks

The Polymarket Clarity Act odds collapsed to around 45% in late April as banking trade groups mounted coordinated opposition and the stablecoin yield compromise stalled. The recovery to 75% tracks a series of concrete developments that followed.

Source: Polymarket

Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks finalized the Section 404 stablecoin yield compromise and consequently declared the deal done. They further told banking groups pushing to reopen the debate that they “respectfully agree to disagree.” Meanwhile, Coinbase and major crypto firms signed off on the compromise language.

Following this, Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott formally scheduled the markup for Thursday, May 14 at 10:30 AM ET. The White House is reportedly targeting July 4 as a symbolic deadline for final approval. Ultimately, each of those steps moved prediction market confidence measurably upward.

What Is Already Agreed and What Is Not

The Clarity Act 2026 has cleared several major hurdles. The stablecoin yield language is settled. Industry alignment from Coinbase, the Blockchain Association, and the Digital Chamber is in place. Bipartisan Senate support exists across the core framework. But real obstacles remain. Banking lobby groups are still pushing last-minute language changes despite signals that the yield debate is closed. 

Ethics provisions tied to Trump administration crypto holdings remain unresolved. DeFi oversight language has not reached final consensus. While securing unified Republican support, a prerequisite Chairman Scott has stated publicly, is not yet confirmed. A Senate aide described the banking industry’s latest push as “pretty milquetoast,” suggesting momentum toward Thursday’s vote is holding.

What This Means for Investors and Developers

For crypto investors, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act passing committee markup would be the most significant U.S. regulatory development since Bitcoin ETF approval. The bill establishes SEC and CFTC jurisdictional boundaries. It creates a legal framework for token classification and provides a compliance pathway for institutional players sitting on the sidelines.

Polymarket’s 75% reading means traders believe the odds now favor success. But a 25% probability of failure still represents meaningful risk heading into Thursday. Watch the markup session closely. A clean committee passage accelerates the path toward a full Senate floor vote and potential White House signature by summer. The Crypto Bill debate has been running for years. This week it either becomes history or hits another wall.

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