Bubblemaps Finds 98% Win Rate on Polymarket Iran Strike Bets, Flags National Security Risk

Analysts at Bubblemaps say nine accounts on prediction platform Polymarket made more than $2.4 million betting on U.S. military actions against Iran, recording a 98% win rate across 80 bets placed ahead of the strikes, according to Bubblemaps CEO Nicolas Vaiman. The findings have prompted congressional calls to ban war-related prediction market contracts. Vaiman also warned that U.S. adversaries could monitor such platforms to gain advance intelligence on military operations. 

Bubblemaps Traced Nine Accounts to $2.4 Million in Wins on U.S. Strike Contracts

Vaiman, whose team led the investigation, said onchain data showed that several large, high-conviction bets were placed days before the Feb. 28 surprise attacks on Iran and the announcement of a ceasefire. 

Vaiman said the accounts did not simply bet on U.S. strikes in the days before they occurred, but spread wagers across several future dates rather than concentrating them on a single outcome, a pattern Vaiman said appeared designed to maximize returns. Smaller losing bets placed on Feb. 20 were likely an attempt to avoid drawing attention, Vaiman said.

Bubblemaps made its investigation public on May 18 via a series of posts on X, sharing graphics and onchain data as evidence of the timing accuracy of the bets. More than $1 billion has been wagered on geopolitically driven contracts on Polymarket in 2025, Bubblemaps said, without specifying which contract types were included in that figure. 

Vaiman Warns U.S. Adversaries Could Read Prediction Markets as Intelligence Tools

In an interview, Vaiman said the national security implications of the trading patterns extend beyond insider trading, stating:  

“The issue here is they can make war plans accordingly. Just to put it bluntly, this could potentially expose the lives of many people. If outside observers can detect irregular trades, so can U.S. adversaries, who could use those signals to shape their military planning.”

Vaiman also raised the possibility of deliberate manipulation. “A government could intentionally place bets to create a false signal and mislead adversaries into thinking something is about to happen,” he said. “Prediction markets are intelligence and information warfare tools.”

Vaiman also said civilians used Polymarket during the Iran strikes to decide whether to shelter in place. When asked whether the traders were connected to the U.S. government, Vaiman said: 

“We have no proof these are military insiders or even Americans. The data is suspicious and may indicate someone with an unfair informational advantage.”

One Arrest Has Been Made as Congress Advances the DEATH BETS Act

One insider trading case has resulted in an arrest. U.S. Army Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a Green Beret, was arrested after making $400,000 on Polymarket bets on a U.S. military operation in Venezuela targeting President Nicolas Maduro, an operation in which he participated. The case drew congressional attention. 

Representative Mike Levin cited a study, which he did not identify by name, finding that only 3% of so-called informed traders drove predictive accuracy on Polymarket, while 97% did not. Levin introduced the DEATH BETS Act alongside Senator Adam Schiff on the basis of that finding. 

Levin stated on X that the “insider trading problem with prediction markets is bigger than any of us could have known.” The bill, called the DEATH BETS Act, would ban contracts tied to war-related outcomes.

Polymarket Cites Chainalysis Partnership and Says Insider Trading Is Not Welcome

Two weeks before Bubblemaps published its findings, Polymarket announced a partnership with blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis, saying it would bring “Wall Street-grade supervision” to its platform. 

Polymarket has said it maintains strict insider trading rules, AI-powered surveillance, and blockchain forensics to identify suspicious activity and report it to relevant authorities. “Insider trading is not welcome on Polymarket, and those who attempt it will be identified,”the platform has said. Polymarket did not immediately comment on the Bubblemaps findings.

Vaiman stopped short of blaming Polymarket directly for the compliance failures. “I don’t want to dunk on Polymarket,” he said. “Realistically, anybody can use a cheap VPN or buy a KYC’d account. That is not just a Polymarket problem. It is an internet-wide problem.”