Polymarket Odds on CLARITY Act Passage Drop Amid Ethics Objection

Polymarket bettors now give the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act) a 47% chance of becoming law in 2026, as White House officials prepare to meet with law enforcement groups.

The Wednesday meeting marks the latest attempt to resolve objections, with ethics and illicit-finance provisions remaining major sticking points.

Where the CLARITY Act Stands Now

The Senate Banking Committee advanced the CLARITY Act in a 15-9 vote on May 14. Two Democrats crossed over to support it. The bill still needs 60 votes to clear the full Senate.

Nonetheless, forecasters have grown more cautious since then. Galaxy Research head Alex Thorn cut his 2026 passage estimate to 60% from 75% on June 5. He cited a tightening Senate calendar.

Prediction market Polymarket tells a similar story. Traders price the bill’s 2026 passage at 47%, down from 74% a month ago. The market has cooled as the legislative window narrows before the August recess.

Inside the Wednesday White House Meeting

Meanwhile, on Wednesday, administration officials are set to host law enforcement groups at the White House. Journalist Eleanor Terrett reported the meeting, citing three sources familiar with it.

At issue are developer protections drawn from the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA). Critics fear the provisions could weaken efforts to combat money laundering and other illicit finance.

“The issue, along with ethics, remains one of the major sticking points that must be resolved before lawmakers can bring the bill to the Senate floor,” Terrett wrote. “Several Democrats have signaled they will not support the legislation unless law enforcement believes its concerns have been adequately addressed.”

Several Democrats have tied their support to those concerns. Senator Angela Alsobrooks has withheld her support for a floor vote until negotiators settle the ethics provisions and remaining disputes.

Meanwhile, crypto firms are pressing for a vote. More than 200 companies and groups urged Senate leaders to schedule the bill in a June 7 letter. Signatories include the Blockchain Association, Stand With Crypto, the Crypto Council for Innovation, and the Digital Chamber.

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The Wednesday meeting could decide whether negotiators break the deadlock before the recess. Until law enforcement signals it is satisfied, the Democratic crossover votes the bill needs will remain in doubt.

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