Prediction Markets Sound the Alarm: Odds of a Bab el-Mandeb Closure Surge Amid New Blockade Threats

The White House agreed to provisions in a crypto market structure bill that could ensure support from some Democratic lawmakers in the US Senate.According to a Tuesday Punchbowl report, White House officials met with Republican Senators Cynthia Lummis and Bernie Moreno to reach an agreement on ethics language in the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act under consideration in the Senate. Neither Lummis nor Moreno have publicly announced the details of the deal, which could facilitate Democratic support in what is expected to be a tight Senate vote, but the report suggested that it could affect US President Donald Trump’s crypto investments.Event contract on chances of CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026.Source: PolymarketThe CLARITY Act, passed by the House of Representatives in July 2025 as part of Republicans’ “Crypto Week” agenda, has faced several delays in Congress due to government shutdowns, concerns from lawmakers over ethics, tokenization and stablecoin rewards and provisions for protecting developers from enforcement actions. Many lawmakers and industry advocates expect the Senate to consider the bill before the chamber breaks for August state work periods, but as of Tuesday, no vote appeared on the congressional calendar and the text of the bill had not been made public.No certainty for 60-vote thresholdLast week, Trump urged the Senate to pass CLARITY “in honor of” the late Senator Lindsey Graham, whom the president said was “a big supporter” of the bill. Many crypto industry executives and lawmakers have publicly come out in support of the bill, but it’s unclear whether the legislation will pass the 60-vote threshold in the Senate, due to many Democrats’ concerns about potential conflicts of interest with the Trump administration.Related: Ethics remain sticking point as crypto market structure bill goes to markupSeveral Senate Democrats, including Elizabeth Warren, Chris Murphy, Jeff Merkley and Chris Van Hollen said that any CLARITY bill would be “worthless” without ethics provisions to address Trump’s ties to the crypto industry, including his memecoin and his family’s World Liberty Financial business. Cointelegraph requested details on the agreement from Lummis’ office but did not receive an immediate response.A White House official told Cointelegraph that the administration was “committed to working with Congress to see the CLARITY Act advance and has agreed to the most comprehensive and wide-ranging ethics provision in history,“ adding that it had “bent over backward to accommodate [Democrats’] concerns.“According to Coinbase vice chair Ryan VanGrack, Democrats have already been able to negotiate to include provisions on customer protection in the Senate bill. However, many lawmakers are calling for hearings to explore Trump’s investments and links to the industry before any potential vote.Bitcoin price climbs amid CLARITY talksThe price of Bitcoin (BTC) rose above $66,000 early on Tuesday, reaching a seven-week high amid reports of an ethics deal and Trump’s plans to introduce additional 10% international trade tariffs.“The reason that prices are running upwards are entirely dedicated towards the potential approval of the Clarity Act,“ said Michaël van de Poppe, founder and chief investment officer of MN Fund and MN Capital, in a Tuesday X post. “Things are brighter and brighter, and as the charts technically look incredible from here, it looks likely that we’ll see the Clarity Act being approved shortly.“Magazine: Will the crypto lobby’s $189M campaign get CLARITY over the line?