Avalanche (AVAX) Price Prediction: AVAX Turning Bullish Above $7 as $8.30 and $10 Come Into Focus

Alongside the improving chart structure, institutional holdings and staking activity are also expanding. If AVAX continues holding above its reclaimed levels, the recent $8.30 high could come back into focus before the market begins looking towards $9.50-$10.00.

Monthly Supertrend Triggering AVAX Bounce

The higher-timeframe chart is beginning to show a potentially important reaction from long-term support. AVAX has spent the past three months testing the lower boundary of its monthly bullish trend structure before bouncing back towards the $7.30-$7.40 region.

Honeybear highlights the monthly Supertrend setup, where the lower bullish support sits near $6.29. Price remains well below the larger trend levels around $17.03 and $20.71, showing that AVAX still has substantial work to do before confirming a complete higher-timeframe reversal.

For now, repeatedly defending the $6.20-$6.30 region strengthens the argument that a larger base may be developing. A monthly recovery through $10 would improve that outlook further, while eventually reclaiming $17 could signal a much bigger shift in the long-term structure.

AVAX has bounced from the lower boundary of its monthly bullish trend structure after testing the area for several months. Source: Honeybear via X

AVAX Likely to Retest Lower Supports

Avalanche has recently broken through a descending trendline that had capped several recovery attempts since June. After the breakout, price surged towards the upper-$7 region before beginning to consolidate around $7.30-$7.40.

The chart shared by Cihan Altcoin suggests AVAX could still retest the former trendline around roughly $6.60-$6.80 before continuing higher. Such a move would be technically healthy if buyers step back in at the reclaimed resistance area and turn it into support.

Avalanche could retest its former descending resistance before attempting another continuation move higher. Source: Cihan Altcoin via X

If the retest holds, AVAX could make another push towards $7.40-$7.50 and eventually retest the recent highs around $7.80-$8.00. A clean loss of the trendline, however, would weaken the breakout and place the $6.20-$6.40 region back in focus.

$7.05 Becomes the Level Bulls Need to Protect

AVAX recently broke out of a lengthy base that had developed between roughly $6 and $7, with the first expansion carrying price as high as approximately $8.30. The move marked one of the strongest signs of momentum Avalanche has shown after months of sideways trading.

Avalanche needs to maintain the $7.05 region to keep its recent breakout structure intact. Source: KhonshuArc via X

The level that now matters most sits around $7.05. Crypto analyst KhonshuArc points to this region as the line that could determine whether the breakout remains intact. Holding above it would allow the recent base to remain constructive and keep another attack on $8.30 in sight.

The daily moving averages are also positioned below price, adding support to the recovery structure. If $7.05 continues to hold and AVAX eventually clears $8.30, the next larger resistance areas could begin appearing around $9.50-$10.00 and then near $12.

AVAX & ETF Momentum

Institutional exposure to Avalanche continues to expand, with three major U.S. asset managers, including Bitwise, VanEck and Grayscale, that are now holding more than 5 million AVAX combined. Data shared by Avalanche’s official X shows total holdings reaching approximately 5.105 million AVAX, worth around $38.27 million.

The more notable part is that roughly 3.49 million AVAX is already being staked, including around 80% of VanEck’s holdings. Combined ETF-related holdings have also increased 34.2% over 13 weeks. Greater staking participation reduces the immediately liquid portion of those holdings and points to institutions taking a more active role in the Avalanche network rather than simply maintaining passive exposure.

Institutional AVAX holdings have crossed 5 million tokens, with approximately 3.49 million currently staked. Source: Avalanche via X

Technical View: $8.30 Is the First Test Before $10

The near-term Avalanche price prediction now depends heavily on whether AVAX can keep the $7.00-$7.05 region as support. Current price has already demonstrated that buyers are willing to step in around the broader $6-$7 base, while the latest breakout has shifted the immediate structure in favor of bulls.

AVAX is trading near $7.17, down 3.24% over the last 24 hours. Source: Brave New Coin

A renewed move through $7.80 would put the recent $8.30 high back in focus. Clearing $8.30 would be an important continuation signal and could open a move towards $9.50-$10.00. Beyond that, the monthly chart suggests much larger resistance remains around $17-$21, meaning those levels are better treated as longer-term objectives rather than immediate targets.

On the downside, losing $7.05 would increase the chance of a deeper retest towards $6.60-$6.80. The stronger structural support remains closer to $6.20-$6.30, where the monthly trend support has recently attracted buyers.

Can AVAX Turn Its Support Base Into a Major Trend Reversal?

Avalanche is beginning to show something it lacked for much of the year: a combination of improving price structure and stronger participation around the network. Institutional holdings have climbed above 5 million AVAX, millions of tokens are being staked, and price has finally broken away from the $6-$7 accumulation area.

• Bullish View: Holding $7.05 and reclaiming $8.30 would strengthen the breakout and put $9.50-$10.00 in focus. A sustained move above $10 could then begin shifting attention towards the larger $17-$21 resistance region visible on the monthly chart.
• Bearish View: Losing $7.05 would weaken the short-term structure and increase the risk of a move towards $6.60-$6.80. A deeper break below $6.20 would be more damaging and suggest the multi-month base has failed to produce a sustainable reversal.

For now, AVAX is showing a much healthier structure than it did during the earlier stages of the decline. The next major confirmation would come from successfully defending $7.05 on weakness and then turning the recent $8.30 high into the next breakout level.