Odds of a September Federal Reserve rate hike fell back to a coin-flip on Friday, a sharp reversal after the probability touched 70% just a day earlier and sat as low as 37% a week before that.
The swing tracks a rally that has pushed Bitcoin (BTC) toward $82,000.
The CME Group (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) FedWatch tool now shows the September 16 meeting split almost evenly between holding the benchmark rate at 3.50-3.75% and lifting it a quarter point to 3.75-4.00%.
The tool had assigned the hike a 70% probability as recently as Thursday.
The FedWatch data also pushed back the timeline for a second hike. A move to the 4.00-4.25% range isn’t priced as the most likely outcome until the March 2027 meeting. Rather than December 2026 as futures had implied earlier in the week.
The odds have been whipsawing alongside oil prices and bond yields tied to the Iran conflict, which has kept traders guessing on inflation.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faced a market split on the hike question at Jackson Hole, and the central bank remains divided over whether to keep tightening.
Bitcoin has moved in step with the shifting rate outlook. The asset blasted past $80,000 this week as talk of an end to the Iran war spread, and traded near $81,000 on Friday, up roughly 5% over 24 hours.
A lower hike probability typically eases pressure on Treasury yields and the dollar. These are both tailwinds for Bitcoin’s price action this week.
Whether that holds through the September 16 decision may depend on how the Iran situation, and the next inflation print, develop in the coming days.
The post Fed Rate Hike Odds Fall to 50/50: Will Bitcoin’s Rally Above 80,000 Hold? appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Circle has minted approximately 500 million USDC on the Solana blockchain in the last 24 hours, highlighting a significant increase in stablecoin supply. This move,
Monad, an EVM-compatible blockchain, activated its MonadTen revision on mainnet at 14:30 UTC on Sept. 2. The MIP-8 upgrade changes how the network charges contracts
According to the latest market metrics, the privacy coin zcash (ZEC) witnessed its price tap an intraday high of $979 per coin on Thursday afternoon,
Curve DAO has appointed yRisk to oversee risk management for its crvUSD and Llamalend projects. This decision comes despite prior concerns stemming from a $9.6
Blockchain Bodega is here and you know the vibes. We’re at the intersection of hip-hop culture and web3, exploring this new digital frontier. Who better to guide you through these uncharted lanes than Ock Chain – The Bitcoin Boss and the Consensus Corner Boys?
Ock Chain doesn’t just cook up random details about cryptocurrency; he lives it. Ock’s been deep in the game since Bitcoin was just a baby.
And let’s not forget about the Consensus Corner Boys. They’re our skilled crew of blockchain enthusiasts. They’re here to educate, entertain, and enlighten.
Welcome to Blockchain Bodega!
Copyright © 2023 Blockchain Bodega. All rights reserved.