Could the New SpaceX Debt Trigger Ray Dalio’s AI Bubble Burst Warning?

SpaceX is seeking $40 billion in new debt to buy Nvidia chips. The request lands days after billionaire Ray Dalio said borrowing for AI has pushed markets close to a bubble burst.

The space company raised nearly $86 billion in its June stock market debut. Weeks later, it sold another $25 billion in bonds.

Why Ray Dalio Says the AI Bubble Is Close to Bursting

Dalio, who founded hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, called AI a “classic bubble” at a Forbes conference in Singapore on Wednesday.

His concern is debt and rising rates. Investors with paper gains eventually sell to raise cash, and Dalio said that is where bubbles usually break.

“We’re in the part of the cycle that is before that but approaching that. I think we’re close to that,” he said.

How Much Is SpaceX Borrowing for AI?

Since absorbing Elon Musk’s AI firm xAI in February, SpaceX spends more on AI than its rocket and Starlink businesses earn. The new package would include $10 billion in bank loans and $30 billion in bonds, per the FT.

SpaceX carries a BBB credit rating, two steps below Meta and Alphabet.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas wrote in August that SpaceX may need to borrow about $80 billion a year through 2035, The Motley Fool reported.

The money would flow to Nvidia, and all 35 Wall Street analysts covering the chipmaker rate NVDA stock a buy, with an average target of $324.20.

Meanwhile, Wall Street is split on whether the borrowing will pay off. Of 35 analysts tracking SpaceX, 28 rate it a buy, five a hold and two a sell.

Their average 12-month price target is $216.21, about 33% above Friday’s close of $162.57. Targets range from $75 to $450.

Who Else Is Exposed if the AI Bubble Bursts?

SpaceX shares closed Friday at $162.57, about 28% below their 52-week high. A batch of 1.31 billion insider shares unlocks after third-quarter results.

The Motley Fool’s Jeremy Bowman wrote that SpaceX would likely fall first in a burst, though he doubts one is near.

SpaceX is not alone. Anthropic has $518 billion in future computing commitments, and OpenAI has $665 billion, according to the Fool. Oracle shares slid on Thursday after questions over OpenAI’s revenue.

Dalio’s warning ties all of that spending to one variable. If rates keep rising, he said, the pressure to sell builds.

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