Can BTC rebound to $69K as oil price plunges? Five things to know in Bitcoin this week
Bitcoin (BTC) starts the third week of June with a spring in its step as the US-Iran peace deal sends risk assets higher.Key points:Bitcoin price action targets $66,000 as US stock futures soar and oil approaches its lowest levels since early March.Traders see $69,000 as a likely short-term BTC price target.The Federal Reserve interest-rate decision is under the microscope thanks to new Chair Kevin Warsh.Bitcoin whales have reversed their selling mentality, putting in a “rock-solid floor” near $60,000.Overall demand weakness raises questions over a bull-market comeback.Oil price drops below $80 as Iran peace countdown beginsThe US-Iran war is again the center of attention for traders this week as a peace deal appears closer than ever.Developments over the weekend initially included a Sunday deadline for signing off on a ceasefire, but this subsequently became Friday.Multiple sources then confirmed that the US and Iran would sign an agreement for a 60-day pause in hostilities, along with various other measures, in Switzerland on Friday.In a post on Truth Social, US President Donald Trump confirmed that the deal would include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — a key global oil route.“With the opening of the Strait upon the signing of the Deal on Friday, for purposes of mine removal, oil will flow on both ends again for the Region, and the World!” he wrote.Source: Truth SocialUS stock futures surged as a result, with risk assets moving higher across the board — including Bitcoin and crypto.Oil, by contrast, fell immediately, with WTI crude trading below $80 per barrel for the first time since mid-April.CFDs on US WTI crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewReacting, portfolio manager Danny Dayan described the deal as the “biggest and worst TACO of all time,” referring to the Trump administration’s approach to various geopolitical and macroeconomic conflicts.“Overheat, higher core inflation, and higher neutral rate, will be the macro considerations ahead,” he told X followers, seeing a pivot away from oil as a market mover.Throughout the conflict, oil price strength has been a headwind for Bitcoin, even as stocks see repeated new all-time highs. BTC/USD is now back at the exact level it traded when it began on Feb. 28. Bitcoin traders see $69,000 short squeezeNews of a US-Iran peace deal helped propel BTC price action toward two-week highs into Sunday’s weekly candle close.Data from TradingView captured local highs of $65,988 as the new week began.BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewWith both $60,000 and Bitcoin’s 200-week simple moving average (SMA) at $62,000 holding as support, traders’ short-term outlook began to improve.“Closed near the highs with almost no upper wick, favoring a push higher this week,” trader SuperBro wrote in his latest analysis on X.SuperBro eyed the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) as a potential target for a short squeeze.“There are a lot of leveraged shorts up to the 200 EMA around $69K. Good chance that is where this is headed,” he added. “Q2 closes in just 2 weeks. Let’s see if bulls can keep the heat on.”BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: SuperBro/XTrader CrypNuevo also had the area just below the $70,000 boundary in sight for the week.“Still seeing a recovery to the mid-range $69k,” he wrote in his X analysis.CrypNuevo warned that BTC/USD could still return to local lows as part of range-bound trading.BTC/USDT one-day chart. Source: CrypNuevo/XTrader and analyst Rekt Capital agreed, stressing that price rebounds tend to become weaker as bear markets progress, along with key support — in this case the $60,000 mark.BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital/XNew Fed chair under pressure on rate cutAgainst the backdrop of serious geopolitical flux, “all eyes” nonetheless remain on the US Federal Reserve.On Wednesday, the Fed’s new chair, Kevin Warsh, will lead his first meeting to decide on interest-rate changes.Given the inflationary catalyst that the Iran war has become, markets see barely any chance of Warsh cutting rates — but Trump has repeatedly called for that very outcome.In an interview in April, Trump told mainstream media that he “would” be disappointed if Warsh did not deliver a cut at the first opportunity.“All eyes are on the Fed this week,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized in its latest X analysis.Fed target rate probabilities for Wednesday FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME GroupThe latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool puts the odds of a minimal 0.25% cut at just 3.4%.Reacting, commentators overwhelmingly see rates remaining at current levels.In analysis on Sunday, Dayan described Warsh as “trapped no matter what he does.”“If he is hawkish, he will be breaking promises made to Trump,” he wrote. “On the other hand, if he uses the recent decline in oil prices as a reason for a wait and see stance, I think he is raising the odds we will see a panic hike in the second half of the year as the economy overheats.”US markets will have a shorter four-day week, with Wall Street closed Friday for the Juneteenth holiday.Whales deliver “rock-solid floor”In a boost for Bitcoin bulls, new analysis reveals a potential sea change in large-volume investor mentality in recent days.Bitcoin whales, according to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, have become buyers again.Looking at exchange inflows from whale wallets, CryptoQuant data shows that coin days destroyed (CDD) — the number of days funds spent dormant after last moving — have significantly cooled.“Inflow CDD plunged from 2.16M to near-zero (33K), showing long-term whale dumping has completely stopped,” contributor Woo Minkyu wrote in a Quicktake blog post on Monday.Bitcoin whale data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuantWoo described whales as putting in an “aggressive bottom buy” at around $61,000, absorbing “all” coins panic sold by other investor cohorts.“The wealth transfer from weak hands to strong hands is complete,” he concluded. “Whales have locked in the $60,000–$61,500 range as a rock-solid floor. With exchange reserves depleted, the path of least resistance for Bitcoin is now firmly upward.”Earlier, Cointelegraph reported that three key conditions for a BTC price rebound were almost satisfied. Whales on Hyperliquid and Bitfinex, analysis said at the time, were already positioned for a bounce.Bitcoin apparent demand stays negativeWhen it comes to a full bull-market rebound, CryptoQuant remains cautious in light of current onchain data. Related: Bitcoin miner ‘capitulation’ comes as trader sees later 2026 bear-market bottomApparent demand, contributor XWIN Japan notes, is still negative — something that has always coincided with bear markets in the past.Bitcoin apparent demand (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuantApparent demand is the difference between Bitcoin’s issuance — or newly mined coins — and the supply inactive for over a year.“If the decrease in inventory exceeds production, demand is increasing, and vice versa,” CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno explains.Accordingly, current negative values signal a broad lack of interest in BTC exposure and may even override the four-year cycle theory to dictate future price action, XWIN says.“This suggests that Bitcoin may not be declining simply because ‘the cycle says so.’ Instead, demand growth has slowed,” it wrote this weekend.Bitcoin apparent demand (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuantXWIN also pointed to declining open interest on Bitcoin futures markets while echoing the theory that a final “capitulation” event may yet occur.
