Crypto market analyst Merlijn the Trader has sounded the alarm about a recurring midterm pattern that has historically preceded major Bitcoin (BTC) price crashes. According to his analysis, this bearish signal has caused BTC’s value to drop by 15% on average. With the pattern now appearing in the current cycle, the analyst suggests that a major price correction could be on the horizon for Bitcoin.
In an X post on May 19, Merlijn the Trader warned investors and traders that a Bitcoin bear crash could be imminent. He pointed to a key chart pattern that has appeared in every midterm year, from as early as 2018 through the current market cycle.
According to the analyst, the pattern follows a distinct cyclical structure, where Bitcoin experiences a significant price decline in Q1 before recovering and rallying in Q2. Once this relief rally ends, a sharp crash occurs, marking a late-year bottom for the flagship cryptocurrency.
The first time this mid-term year pattern was observed was in 2018. At the time, Bitcoin’s price fell by a staggering 25% in January, before rallying by over 33% in Q2 around April. Once this brief recovery faded, the cryptocurrency plummeted again by 19% in May, before forming a final cycle low around December of that year.
The same trend was repeated during the 2022 cycle. Here, Bitcoin’s price fell by 17% in Q1, then staged a more than 5% recovery in March, before recording a 16% decline in April and ultimately forming a cycle bottom in November.
Fast-forward to the current market cycle, Merlijn the Trader believes that Bitcoin’s price action could be mirroring this historical mid-term pattern. He noted that BTC has already experienced a massive 23% price crash in Q1, followed by a relief rally of over 14% from March to April 2026.
Now, the bullish momentum appears to be fading, with May bringing more volatility and a decline in BTC price. If history plays out as expected, Merlijn the Trader predicts that Bitcoin could form a midterm-year bottom between November and December this year. While he has not set a specific bearish target for his forecast, the analyst remains confident that a price crash could occur soon.
Other crypto analysts like Chiefy appear to maintain a similar bearish stance on Bitcoin. In a recent X post, the expert also pointed to past trends and chart structures, noting that BTC is repeating a key pattern that has consistently destroyed bullish sentiment across past market cycles.
He described this bearish signal as “the Head & Shoulders breakdown,” noting that the pattern has already been confirmed on the BTC chart. Because of its recent re-emergence, Chiefy believes the market is now entering a retest phase and predicts a potential BTC price crash to $37,000. With Bitcoin currently trading above $77,000, a decline to this level would represent a more than 52% loss in value.
A Hyperliquid trader known as ‘Evaded’ has booked over $7.5 million in profit from two positions in less than four days, most recently rolling back
BitGo and Galaxy Digital are continuing their courtroom battle over the collapse of a $1.2 billion acquisition agreement that was once expected to become the
Asset manager Grayscale named four blockchains best placed to absorb institutional flows after the CLARITY Act passes. The list pairs Ethereum and Solana with BNB
A potential rate hike under Warsh could tighten financial conditions, impacting risk assets and crypto, while emphasizing Fed’s inflation control. The post Federal Reserve faces
Blockchain Bodega is here and you know the vibes. We’re at the intersection of hip-hop culture and web3, exploring this new digital frontier. Who better to guide you through these uncharted lanes than Ock Chain – The Bitcoin Boss and the Consensus Corner Boys?
Ock Chain doesn’t just cook up random details about cryptocurrency; he lives it. Ock’s been deep in the game since Bitcoin was just a baby.
And let’s not forget about the Consensus Corner Boys. They’re our skilled crew of blockchain enthusiasts. They’re here to educate, entertain, and enlighten.
Welcome to Blockchain Bodega!
Copyright © 2023 Blockchain Bodega. All rights reserved.