Court Restitution and Corporate Treasuries Challenge the “Government Dumping” Narrative

Wallets tied to the U.S. government sent 833.6 BTC, about $71.6 million, to Coinbase Prime on October 6 and 7, according to Arkham Intelligence.

The same wallets also moved 40,285 BNB linked to the Alameda Research case. It was the first activity from these wallets since August 26, and the “government is dumping” chatter started within minutes.

So, that reading is probably wrong, and the coins’ origins explain why.

Onchain Lens, working from Arkham’s wallet labels, tied roughly 264.9 BTC to the 2016 Bitfinex hack and about 568.7 BTC to the HashFlare fraud case against Sergei Potapenko and Ivan Turõgin.

Furthermore, Arkham has labeled the Bitfinex seizure as a single 94,643 BTC wallet since 2023. Neither batch looks like the “keep forever” coins Washington has promised to hold.

Start with Bitfinex. Prosecutors told the D.C. federal court that the seized assets should be returned to Bitfinex “as in-kind restitution”. That means coins, not cash. Sending a slice of that pile to an institutional custodian looks like logistics for a handover, not a sale.

HashFlare is murkier but points the same way. The Justice Department says victims paid more than $575 million to the defendants’ companies. It also says it plans to set up a process for victims to obtain repayment. Those coins may be heading toward compensation rather than the open market. The government hasn’t said so, and no agency has announced a sale.

The Detail Most People Missed

Now, if 94,643 BTC is owed to Bitfinex, how much of the U.S. stash is really Washington’s to keep? BitcoinTreasuries.NET lists the U.S. at 328,372 BTC, so the Bitfinex coins make up roughly 29% of it. CoinGecko puts the figure slightly higher, at 329,693 BTC. By either count, nearly a third of the headline number is spoken for.

The official promise is also narrower than it sounds. The White House says the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve will be capitalized with Treasury-owned bitcoin forfeited in criminal or civil proceedings, and that bitcoin deposited there will not be sold. Coins still tied up in court orders or victim claims sit outside that promise until forfeiture is final.

Strategy Has Been Selling And Buying

Strategy’s October 5 SEC filing puts its holdings at 848,000 BTC as of October 4. It bought 334 BTC that week at an average of $85,838.80, close to where bitcoin trades now ($84,245, per BitcoinTreasuries).

The summer was messier. Strategy launched a BTC Monetization Program on June 29 and sold coins to fund preferred-stock payouts. It also disclosed that its cost basis then exceeded the market value of its holdings. By September 30 that had flipped. The company now reports a $20.91 billion Q3 gain on digital assets and has reversed a $4.12 billion tax valuation allowance. It holds a $4.88 billion USD reserve and spent $73.7 million in four days buying back its own STRC preferred shares.

So the world’s largest corporate holder has sold bitcoin, bought it and repurchased stock within a single quarter. That’s an active treasury manager, not a hold-and-never-sell story.

Companies Now Outweigh Governments

BitcoinTreasuries.NET counts 1,278,772 BTC in public companies against 645,590 BTC across all government entities, nearly two to one. Strategy alone holds about 66% of the public-company total. Its 848,000 BTC is roughly 2.6 times the U.S. government’s stack and more than every tracked government combined.

Oddities On The Sovereign Leaderboard

Behind the U.S. (328,372), China (190,000) and the United Kingdom (61,245), the fourth-largest entry is Ukraine, at 46,351 BTC. BitcoinTreasuries labels it “holdings of public officials” rather than state reserves. El Salvador sits at 7,797 BTC and the UAE at 6,420. Germany and Bulgaria now show zero.

Trackers also disagree sharply on smaller holders. CoinGecko lists North Korea at 13,562 BTC and Bhutan at 10,769. BitcoinTreasuries shows 803 and 518. That gap is a reminder that “government holdings” rest on estimates, not audited disclosures.

What To Watch

Nothing here confirms a sale, and the court-ordered Bitfinex return is the most plausible explanation for part of the move. The real signals will come from Washington: a Treasury statement on the reserve’s accounting, a Justice Department notice on HashFlare repayments, or coins leaving Coinbase Prime for exchange order books. On the corporate side, Strategy’s next Monday filing will show whether it keeps buying near $85,000.

Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any services. Follow us on X @nulltxnews