Bitcoin reclaims 50-week moving average: Is the bear market over?

Bitcoin has closed above its 50-week moving average for the first time in more than 10 months, a development some analysts said could signal the end of Bitcoin’s bear market. 

Bitcoin closed the week at $81,159 on Coinbase on Sunday, above its 50-week moving average of $78,788, according to TradingView. The last weekly close above the moving average was on Nov. 9, 2025.

In August, Galaxy Research’s head of firmwide research Alex Thorn described the 50-week moving average as serving as a ceiling during bear markets. 

“In four of the five completed bear markets, once the 50-week moving average was first broken to the upside, the bear market bottom was definitively ‘in,’” he said in a research note. 

“Essentially, retaking the 50w MA has previously confirmed the end of a bear market,” Thorn added. 

The latest close is also Bitcoin’s highest weekly close in four months, according to data from TradingView. 

On Tuesday, ahead of the weekly close, crypto research company Collective Shift founder Ben Simpson said Bitcoin closing above its 50-week moving average would be “the last thing I need to see before I call this a bull market.” He said Bitcoin gained between 700% and 900% after breaking above the level in 2017, 2020 and 2023.

Bitget chief analyst Ryan Lee told Cointelegraph that the latest close added weight to the case that Bitcoin’s recovery was underway.

“In previous cycles, reclaiming this level has tended to happen after the major low was established and longer-term momentum had started to recover.”

However, Lee said one weekly close was not enough to confirm that Bitcoin had reached its cycle bottom.

“What matters now is whether Bitcoin can stay above the 50-week average and continue forming higher lows,” he said. “We have seen failed reclaims in previous cycles, particularly when the macro environment remained difficult.”

Galaxy similarly cautioned in August that while the 50-week moving average is a historically strong indicator that a bear market is over, the signal isn’t infallible. 

Of 13 weekly crossings back above the 50-week moving average, two of them were followed by a lower low, both occurring in the 2021-2022 bear market.  

Lee said the market backdrop was nevertheless stronger than it was earlier in the year, with Bitcoin recovering significantly from its July lows of $57,000. Lee said repeated liquidations have also cleared out leverage that had built up in the market, and there are signs of a return of institutional demand. 

Related: Bitcoin hits $81K as US bond yields rebound on global oil woes

Meanwhile, crypto trader Craig Cobb told Cointelegraph that the 50-week moving average was not the indicator he was watching to determine whether a bull market had begun. 

Cobb said he was instead looking at $83,000 as a key level for Bitcoin, “which will mean there is no lower high on the monthly chart and therefore the trend is no longer down.”

His second test involves Bitcoin’s three-month chart. Under that setup, Cobb said he is looking for a succession of red quarterly candles that must end with a green candle, followed by a subsequent candle breaking above the green candle’s high.

Cobb said the red-to-green transition had occurred 15 times in Bitcoin’s history. In 11 instances, the high of the first green candle was subsequently broken, and all 11 moves eventually produced a new all-time high.

“So combine $83,000 being broken and the close of the September three-month candle, then a break of the high and I will say the bull market has begun,” said Cobb.